How can we understand the outcome of one of the world’s most secretive elections through the lens of network science?
In a new article published in Social Networks, PhD candidate Leonardo Rizzo, together with Giuseppe Soda and Alessandro Iorio, brings a fresh perspective to the papal conclave—the process by which cardinals elect a new pope. Drawing on official Vatican directories and episcopal consecration records, the authors construct a multiplex network capturing institutional and ceremonial ties within the College of Cardinals.
The study identifies three key mechanisms that shape papal viability: status, mediation power, and coalition-building capacity. By calculating relevant structural metrics, the authors reveal patterns of influence often overlooked in conventional commentary.
Released just ahead of the May 8, 2025 election of Pope Leo XIV, the paper highlights the case of Cardinal Robert F. Prevost. While largely ignored by pundits, bookmakers, and AI models, Cardinal Prevost emerged from the analysis as one of the most structurally prominent figures—well positioned at the intersection of several key networks. From this perspective, he was a strong contender all along.
This study not only contributes to a deeper understanding of the 2025 conclave, but also demonstrates how tools from network science can illuminate hidden structures in highly opaque institutional processes.
Read the full paper in Social Networks
